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Heat pump vs gas furnace operating cost

Compare the cost of a million Btu of delivered heat using AFUE, HSPF2, and EIA residential price averages — or the rates on your own bill.

Electricity: EIA Electric Power Annual Table 2.10, 2025 residential, final (Form EIA-861). Natural gas and heat content: EIA annual series, release 2026-10-30. Retrieved 2026-11-11.

Fuel and electricity prices

Equipment ratings
AFUE is the share of the fuel’s energy delivered as heat over a heating season. Enter the rating from the EnergyGuide or nameplate. 95 is a common high-efficiency figure, not a recommendation.
HSPF2 is seasonal Btu of heat per watt-hour in DOE Region IV, not your climate. ENERGY STAR’s cold-climate ducted / packaged minimum is 8.1 HSPF2; non-ducted is 8.5. Use the rating on your AHRI or EnergyGuide label.
Optional: scale to a year’s useful heat

The formulas

A furnace and a heat pump buy different energy, so the labels cannot be compared as raw numbers. Convert both to the cost of delivered heat:

therms per Mcf = (Btu per cubic foot) / 100
gas $ per therm = ($ per Mcf) / (therms per Mcf)
furnace $ per MMBtu delivered = (gas $ per therm × 10) / AFUE

heat-pump kWh per MMBtu = 1,000,000 / (HSPF2 × 1,000) = 1,000 / HSPF2
heat-pump $ per MMBtu delivered = (1,000 / HSPF2) × ($ per kWh)

Implied seasonal COP ≈ HSPF2 / 3.412
(because 1 kWh = 3,412 Btu in the usual EIA conversion)

HSPF2 is defined by ENERGY STAR / 10 CFR 430 Appendix M1 as seasonal heating Btu in Region IV divided by watt-hours. It is not a Minnesota or Maine rating. Electric-resistance backup (COP 1) can raise the real bill in cold weather.

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