Not at the 2025 state average. California’s EIA residential electricity price was 31.35¢/kWh, and the 2025 residential gas average was $22.01/Mcf with a 1,022 Btu/cf heat content (about $2.15/therm). A 95% AFUE furnace then costs about 22.67 per MMBtu of delivered heat, versus about 38.70 for an 8.1 HSPF2 heat pump. The furnace wins that unit-cost comparison by a wide margin.
| State | Residential electricity, 2025 (¢/kWh) | Residential gas ($/Mcf) | Implied $/therm | 95% AFUE furnace ($/MMBtu) | 8.1 HSPF2 heat pump ($/MMBtu) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California | 31.35 | 22.01 (2025) | 2.15 | 22.67 | 38.70 |
| United States | 17.23 | 15.34 (2025) | 1.48 | 15.59 | 21.27 |
Electricity from EIA Electric Power Annual Table 2.10, 2025 residential, final, retrieved 2026-11-11. Gas and heat content from EIA annual series, release 2026-10-30. Therms per Mcf = heat content (Btu/cf) / 100. Furnace cost = (gas $ per therm × 10) / 0.95. Heat-pump cost = (1,000 / 8.1) × electricity $/kWh. HSPF2 8.1 is ENERGY STAR’s cold-climate minimum for ducted / packaged units, used here as a labeled rating, not a prediction of your climate. State averages are not your tariff.
Mild coastal climates can make a heat pump very effective as a machine — that is a performance fact, not a rate fact. High electric rates are why the operating-cost question still favors gas in this table. Time-of-use charging of a heat pump, rooftop solar, or a much higher HSPF2 rating would need to be entered in the calculator rather than assumed. This page does not include a federal tax credit; several residential credits ended after 2025.
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