There is no national winner. Convert both systems to dollars per million Btu of delivered heat. At EIA’s 2025 U.S. average residential prices (17.23¢/kWh and $15.34/Mcf, with a 1,036 Btu/cf heat content), a 95% AFUE furnace comes out to about 15.59 per MMBtu and an 8.1 HSPF2 heat pump to about 21.27 per MMBtu. In a low-electricity-price state the heat pump can pull ahead; in a high-price state the furnace’s lead widens. Your bill rates override the averages.
| State | Residential electricity, 2025 (¢/kWh) | Residential gas ($/Mcf) | Implied $/therm | 95% AFUE furnace ($/MMBtu) | 8.1 HSPF2 heat pump ($/MMBtu) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 17.23 | 15.34 (2025) | 1.48 | 15.59 | 21.27 |
| California | 31.35 | 22.01 (2025) | 2.15 | 22.67 | 38.70 |
| Washington | 13.17 | 17.62 (2025) | 1.61 | 16.92 | 16.26 |
| Idaho | 11.83 | 7.69 (2025) | 0.74 | 7.79 | 14.60 |
| Massachusetts | 30.41 | 25.06 (2025) | 2.43 | 25.59 | 37.54 |
| New York | 26.39 | 17.58 (2025) | 1.70 | 17.93 | 32.58 |
Electricity from EIA Electric Power Annual Table 2.10, 2025 residential, final, retrieved 2026-11-11. Gas and heat content from EIA annual series, release 2026-10-30. Therms per Mcf = heat content (Btu/cf) / 100. Furnace cost = (gas $ per therm × 10) / 0.95. Heat-pump cost = (1,000 / 8.1) × electricity $/kWh. HSPF2 8.1 is ENERGY STAR’s cold-climate minimum for ducted / packaged units, used here as a labeled rating, not a prediction of your climate. State averages are not your tariff.
r/heatpumps threads about “rising electric rates” are asking this exact question. The U.S. row is a midpoint, not a forecast. Washington’s averages in this table slightly favor the heat pump (16.26 vs 16.92); California’s strongly favor the furnace (38.70 vs 22.67). Electric-resistance backup, dual-fuel changeover, and time-of-use rates can all move a real bill off these unit costs.
Put your state or your bill into the operating-cost calculator, and read the HSPF2 vs AFUE and cold-climate COP pages before you treat a seasonal rating as a winter guarantee.
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