Not at the state averages, using these ratings. Massachusetts: 30.41¢/kWh and $25.06/Mcf (1,031 Btu/cf) → about 25.59/MMBtu for a 95% furnace vs 37.54 for an 8.1 HSPF2 heat pump. New York: 26.39¢/kWh and $17.58/Mcf (1,032 Btu/cf) → about 17.93 vs 32.58. Both comparisons favor the furnace on unit cost, and both states have winters colder than DOE Region IV.
| State | Residential electricity, 2025 (¢/kWh) | Residential gas ($/Mcf) | Implied $/therm | 95% AFUE furnace ($/MMBtu) | 8.1 HSPF2 heat pump ($/MMBtu) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massachusetts | 30.41 | 25.06 (2025) | 2.43 | 25.59 | 37.54 |
| New York | 26.39 | 17.58 (2025) | 1.70 | 17.93 | 32.58 |
| United States | 17.23 | 15.34 (2025) | 1.48 | 15.59 | 21.27 |
Electricity from EIA Electric Power Annual Table 2.10, 2025 residential, final, retrieved 2026-11-11. Gas and heat content from EIA annual series, release 2026-10-30. Therms per Mcf = heat content (Btu/cf) / 100. Furnace cost = (gas $ per therm × 10) / 0.95. Heat-pump cost = (1,000 / 8.1) × electricity $/kWh. HSPF2 8.1 is ENERGY STAR’s cold-climate minimum for ducted / packaged units, used here as a labeled rating, not a prediction of your climate. State averages are not your tariff.
This is the cold-climate + high-rate combination. ENERGY STAR’s cold-climate designation (COP at least 1.75 at 5°F, and at least 70% of 47°F capacity) is about whether the machine still heats, not about whether it beats gas at 30¢/kWh. A dual-fuel setup — heat pump down to a changeover temperature, then the furnace — is how many Northeast and Midwest owners in forum threads reconcile the two. Use the calculator with your rates, and see the COP-at-5°F page.
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