Overview
Heat pumps, mini-splits, and running cost
A 95% AFUE furnace and an 8.1 HSPF2 heat pump cannot be compared as raw numbers. Convert both to the cost of delivered heat with local energy prices, and remember that HSPF2 is a Region IV test rating.
This cluster does not promote a federal tax credit. Several widely used residential energy credits ended after 2025; confirm anything you see on an older article against current IRS guidance. State and utility rebates, if you pursue them, have to be checked locally.
Mini-split sizing is a Manual J job. Manufacturer rules of thumb such as 20–25 Btu per square foot are starting points, not a substitute for a load calculation, and this site does not ship a fake precise sizing calculator.
Open the operating-cost calculator
Questions in this cluster
- Heat pump vs gas furnace: which costs less to run?
- Is a heat pump cheaper to run than a gas furnace in California?
- Is a heat pump cheaper to run than a gas furnace in Washington or Idaho?
- Is a heat pump cheaper to run than a gas furnace in Massachusetts or New York?
- What is HSPF2, and why can’t I compare it directly with AFUE?
- What does a COP of 1.75 at 5°F mean on a cold-climate heat pump?
- Dual fuel: when would a heat pump switch over to a gas furnace?
- Ductless mini split vs a window air conditioner: what’s the real difference?
- What size mini split do I need?
- Do heat-pump backup heat strips mean I need a panel upgrade?
- Will installing a heat pump require a panel upgrade?
- How do I compare heat-pump running cost using last year’s gas bill?
- Will a heat pump work in a Minnesota or Wisconsin winter vs a gas furnace?
- Heat pump vs furnace operating cost in Texas
- Heat pump vs furnace operating cost in Illinois or Ohio
- Does Time-of-Use electricity make a heat pump cheaper than the EIA average suggests?
- How much backup electric heat will a cold-climate heat pump actually use?
- Mini split vs central heat pump for a house with existing ducts
- Can a ductless mini split heat a garage or a sunroom?
- How many BTU mini split for a 400-square-foot room?
- How many BTU mini split for a 1,000-square-foot open plan?
- Do I need a multi-zone mini split or several single-zone units?
- Will a mini split work in a cold climate as the only heat source?
- SEER2 vs EER vs CEER: how should I compare a mini split and a window unit?
- Does a heat pump qualify for a state or utility rebate in 2026?
- Should I replace a furnace and AC with a dual-fuel heat pump or a full electric heat pump?
- How do I estimate annual heating load from heating degree days?
- Is it cheaper to run a heat pump on a Midwestern utility than to run gas, using my actual rates?
- What HSPF2 should I look for if I live north of Region IV?
- Can I add a ductless mini split to a 100-amp panel?
- Does a heat pump raise my summer bill enough to cancel winter savings?
- What size heat pump do I need for a 2,000-square-foot house?
- Can I run a heat pump on off-peak electric rates and beat gas?
- How do I convert $/Mcf gas prices to $/therm for a furnace comparison?
- Should I keep my gas furnace as backup if I install a cold-climate heat pump?
This is not a permit calculation, a utility approval, or a substitute for a licensed electrician, HVAC contractor, or the authority having jurisdiction. Panel Headroom is an independent educational site. It is not a utility, a certification body, or a contractor. Electrical and generator work that is done incorrectly can cause fire, shock, or carbon monoxide poisoning. Use the adopted electrical code and manufacturer instructions; pull permits where required.