Yes, it can change the comparison, in either direction. EIA’s state prices on this site are annual average cents per kWh, not your on-peak, off-peak, or shoulder rates. A heat pump that runs steadily on a cold afternoon may sit in a high-priced period; one that can precondition the house in a cheap overnight window, or that rides a solar-heavy midday rate, may beat the average. The opposite is also true: a high on-peak rate can make the heat-pump side of the table look worse than the EIA row. The U.S. 2025 average in our table is 17.23¢/kWh; that is a midpoint, not a tariff.
A labeled illustration, not a typical plan: if your furnace unit cost is the U.S. 95% AFUE figure of about 15.59/MMBtu, the electricity price at which an 8.1 HSPF2 heat pump matches it is 15.59 × 8.1 / 1,000 ≈ 0.126 $/kWh, or about 12.6¢/kWh. Off-peak rates below that line favor the heat pump at this rating; on-peak rates above it favor the furnace, at that moment. Your HSPF2, your AFUE, and your gas price move the line. HSPF2 is still a seasonal Region IV rating, not a TOU-weighted COP.
The calculator accepts a custom electricity price. Use a usage-weighted average of your TOU periods if you can estimate how much heat falls in each, or run the comparison twice (off-peak and on-peak) as bookends. See also the off-peak page.
This is not a permit calculation, a utility approval, or a substitute for a licensed electrician, HVAC contractor, or the authority having jurisdiction. Panel Headroom is an independent educational site. It is not a utility, a certification body, or a contractor. Electrical and generator work that is done incorrectly can cause fire, shock, or carbon monoxide poisoning. Use the adopted electrical code and manufacturer instructions; pull permits where required.