Overview
Heat pumps, mini-splits, and running cost
A 95% AFUE furnace and an 8.1 HSPF2 heat pump cannot be compared as raw numbers. Convert both to the cost of delivered heat with local energy prices, and remember that HSPF2 is a Region IV test rating.
This cluster does not promote a federal tax credit. Several widely used residential energy credits ended after 2025; confirm anything you see on an older article against current IRS guidance. State and utility rebates, if you pursue them, have to be checked locally.
Mini-split sizing is a Manual J job. Manufacturer rules of thumb such as 20–25 Btu per square foot are starting points, not a substitute for a load calculation, and this site does not ship a fake precise sizing calculator.
Open the operating-cost calculator
Questions in this cluster
- Heat pump vs gas furnace: which costs less to run?
- Is a heat pump cheaper to run than a gas furnace in California?
- Is a heat pump cheaper to run than a gas furnace in Washington or Idaho?
- Is a heat pump cheaper to run than a gas furnace in Massachusetts or New York?
- What is HSPF2, and why can’t I compare it directly with AFUE?
- What does a COP of 1.75 at 5°F mean on a cold-climate heat pump?
- Dual fuel: when would a heat pump switch over to a gas furnace?
- Ductless mini split vs a window air conditioner: what’s the real difference?
- What size mini split do I need?
- Do heat-pump backup heat strips mean I need a panel upgrade?
- Will installing a heat pump require a panel upgrade?
- How do I compare heat-pump running cost using last year’s gas bill?
This is not a permit calculation, a utility approval, or a substitute for a licensed electrician, HVAC contractor, or the authority having jurisdiction. Panel Headroom is an independent educational site. It is not a utility, a certification body, or a contractor. Electrical and generator work that is done incorrectly can cause fire, shock, or carbon monoxide poisoning. Use the adopted electrical code and manufacturer instructions; pull permits where required.