It can work as a machine, and it is often more expensive to run than gas at the state averages. Comfort in a Minnesota or Wisconsin winter is a capacity question: look for a cold-climate model with a published COP and capacity at 5°F (ENERGY STAR’s cold-climate floor is a COP of at least 1.75 at 5°F and at least 70% of 47°F capacity), plus a Manual J that uses the local design temperature. Operating cost is a rate question. At EIA’s 2025 residential averages, Minnesota is 15.83¢/kWh and $10.98/Mcf (1,055 Btu/cf); Wisconsin is 18.08¢/kWh and $10.74/Mcf (1,049 Btu/cf). A 95% AFUE furnace then costs about 10.96 per MMBtu in Minnesota and 10.78 in Wisconsin, versus about 19.54 and 22.32 for an 8.1 HSPF2 heat pump. Both comparisons favor the furnace on unit cost, and cheap Midwestern gas is a large part of why.
| State | Residential electricity, 2025 (¢/kWh) | Residential gas ($/Mcf) | Implied $/therm | 95% AFUE furnace ($/MMBtu) | 8.1 HSPF2 heat pump ($/MMBtu) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 15.83 | 10.98 (2025) | 1.04 | 10.96 | 19.54 |
| Wisconsin | 18.08 | 10.74 (2025) | 1.02 | 10.78 | 22.32 |
| United States | 17.23 | 15.34 (2025) | 1.48 | 15.59 | 21.27 |
Electricity from EIA Electric Power Annual Table 2.10, 2025 residential, final, retrieved 2026-11-11. Gas and heat content from EIA annual series, release 2026-10-30. Therms per Mcf = heat content (Btu/cf) / 100. Furnace cost = (gas $ per therm × 10) / 0.95. Heat-pump cost = (1,000 / 8.1) × electricity $/kWh. HSPF2 8.1 is ENERGY STAR’s cold-climate minimum for ducted / packaged units, used here as a labeled rating, not a prediction of your climate. State averages are not your tariff.
HSPF2 remains a DOE Region IV seasonal rating. The 5°F COP is the better cold-snap check — see that page. Dual fuel (heat pump in milder weather, furnace below a commissioned changeover) is how many Upper Midwest owners reconcile the two, and electric-resistance backup will make the heat-pump side of this table look worse if it runs often. Put your bill rates into the operating-cost calculator rather than treating the state average as your tariff.
This is not a permit calculation, a utility approval, or a substitute for a licensed electrician, HVAC contractor, or the authority having jurisdiction. Panel Headroom is an independent educational site. It is not a utility, a certification body, or a contractor. Electrical and generator work that is done incorrectly can cause fire, shock, or carbon monoxide poisoning. Use the adopted electrical code and manufacturer instructions; pull permits where required.