Not at the state averages, using these ratings. Illinois: 17.67¢/kWh and $11.25/Mcf (1,048 Btu/cf) → about 11.30/MMBtu for a 95% furnace vs 21.81 for an 8.1 HSPF2 heat pump. Ohio: 16.90¢/kWh and $13.85/Mcf (1,062 Btu/cf) → about 13.73 vs 20.86. Both comparisons favor the furnace on unit cost. Illinois’s cheap residential gas is especially hard for the heat pump to beat at these ratings; Ohio is a bit closer and still favors gas.
| State | Residential electricity, 2025 (¢/kWh) | Residential gas ($/Mcf) | Implied $/therm | 95% AFUE furnace ($/MMBtu) | 8.1 HSPF2 heat pump ($/MMBtu) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | 17.67 | 11.25 (2025) | 1.07 | 11.30 | 21.81 |
| Ohio | 16.90 | 13.85 (2025) | 1.30 | 13.73 | 20.86 |
| United States | 17.23 | 15.34 (2025) | 1.48 | 15.59 | 21.27 |
Electricity from EIA Electric Power Annual Table 2.10, 2025 residential, final, retrieved 2026-11-11. Gas and heat content from EIA annual series, release 2026-10-30. Therms per Mcf = heat content (Btu/cf) / 100. Furnace cost = (gas $ per therm × 10) / 0.95. Heat-pump cost = (1,000 / 8.1) × electricity $/kWh. HSPF2 8.1 is ENERGY STAR’s cold-climate minimum for ducted / packaged units, used here as a labeled rating, not a prediction of your climate. State averages are not your tariff.
This is the climate of the Chicago-suburbs dual-fuel threads: winters colder than DOE Region IV, and gas that is often cheaper per unit of delivered heat than electricity at an 8.1 HSPF2. A full-electric cold-climate heat pump can still be the right comfort and decarbonization choice; it is not automatically the cheaper operating-cost choice at these averages. Dual fuel, or a commissioned changeover, is how many owners stop arguing with January. Use the calculator with your rates, and see the dual-fuel and backup-furnace pages.
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