At the state average, the heat pump is slightly ahead at these ratings, and the gap is small. Texas’s 2025 EIA residential electricity price was 15.40¢/kWh, and the 2025 residential gas average was $19.42/Mcf with a 1,016 Btu/cf heat content (about $1.91/therm). A 95% AFUE furnace then costs about 20.12 per MMBtu of delivered heat, versus about 19.01 for an 8.1 HSPF2 heat pump. That is the opposite of the Minnesota and Wisconsin table, and it is close enough that your actual kWh rate, a higher or lower HSPF2, or a winter-only gas tariff can flip it.
| State | Residential electricity, 2025 (¢/kWh) | Residential gas ($/Mcf) | Implied $/therm | 95% AFUE furnace ($/MMBtu) | 8.1 HSPF2 heat pump ($/MMBtu) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | 15.40 | 19.42 (2025) | 1.91 | 20.12 | 19.01 |
| United States | 17.23 | 15.34 (2025) | 1.48 | 15.59 | 21.27 |
Electricity from EIA Electric Power Annual Table 2.10, 2025 residential, final, retrieved 2026-11-11. Gas and heat content from EIA annual series, release 2026-10-30. Therms per Mcf = heat content (Btu/cf) / 100. Furnace cost = (gas $ per therm × 10) / 0.95. Heat-pump cost = (1,000 / 8.1) × electricity $/kWh. HSPF2 8.1 is ENERGY STAR’s cold-climate minimum for ducted / packaged units, used here as a labeled rating, not a prediction of your climate. State averages are not your tariff.
Texas is also a cooling-first climate for many houses. If you are replacing a furnace and an air conditioner together, the summer efficiency of the heat pump versus the old AC belongs in the comparison — see the summer-bill page — not only the heating unit cost. Mild winters make a heat pump’s heating COP look better than a Region IV rating would suggest in Duluth, which is a performance point, not a reason to ignore your rate. Use the calculator with your bill, and do not treat the 0. something dollars of difference in this table as a forecast.
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