It might be, but you should not answer from the state average alone — and in much of the Midwest the average currently favors gas at these ratings. The operating-cost calculator is built for this: enter the cents per kWh and the dollars per therm (or per Mcf) from your bills, plus the furnace AFUE and the heat-pump HSPF2, and compare dollars per MMBtu or an annual sketch. EIA 2025 Illinois, Ohio, Minnesota, and Wisconsin averages all show a lower furnace unit cost than an 8.1 HSPF2 heat pump in this site’s tables. Your utility may be higher or lower, and a winter gas price can differ from the annual average. Time-of-use electricity can move the heat-pump side as well; see that page.
| State | Residential electricity, 2025 (¢/kWh) | Residential gas ($/Mcf) | Implied $/therm | 95% AFUE furnace ($/MMBtu) | 8.1 HSPF2 heat pump ($/MMBtu) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | 17.67 | 11.25 (2025) | 1.07 | 11.30 | 21.81 |
| Ohio | 16.90 | 13.85 (2025) | 1.30 | 13.73 | 20.86 |
| Minnesota | 15.83 | 10.98 (2025) | 1.04 | 10.96 | 19.54 |
| Wisconsin | 18.08 | 10.74 (2025) | 1.02 | 10.78 | 22.32 |
| United States | 17.23 | 15.34 (2025) | 1.48 | 15.59 | 21.27 |
Electricity from EIA Electric Power Annual Table 2.10, 2025 residential, final, retrieved 2026-11-11. Gas and heat content from EIA annual series, release 2026-10-30. Therms per Mcf = heat content (Btu/cf) / 100. Furnace cost = (gas $ per therm × 10) / 0.95. Heat-pump cost = (1,000 / 8.1) × electricity $/kWh. HSPF2 8.1 is ENERGY STAR’s cold-climate minimum for ducted / packaged units, used here as a labeled rating, not a prediction of your climate. State averages are not your tariff.
A short walkthrough: find a typical kWh price on the electric bill (total dollars for energy, excluding unrelated charges if you can separate them, divided by kWh), find a gas price in $/therm or convert $/Mcf with the heat-content method on the conversion page, and enter both. If you have last year’s heating therms, use the “compare using my gas bill” mode instead of a generic annual load. HSPF2 remains a Region IV seasonal rating, so a Midwestern winter can be harder on the heat pump than the rating suggests — which is an argument for also looking at the 5°F COP and at dual fuel, not for skipping the rate math.
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